Analyzing Figure AI as a DAO Opportunity
Figure AI is building AI-native humanoid robots for real-world labor. Valued at $39.5 billion, Figure AI presents a high-conviction opportunity to gain exposure to the labor automation market.
April 7, 2025
Category:
Physical AI
Read time:
7 minutes
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Apptronik, founded in 2016, is a leader in AI-powered humanoid robotics, originating from the University of Texas at Austin's Human Centred Robotics Lab, with roots tracing back to the 2013 NASA-DARPA Robotics Challenge, where the team worked on the Valkyrie robot.
Their flagship humanoid robot, Apollo, is designed to collaborate seamlessly with humans in industries such as warehousing and manufacturing, with future expansion into construction and healthcare.
Apollo is a modular robot made for real-world environments
Apollo’s human-like form allows it to navigate and operate efficiently in environments built for people, powered by advanced mobility and AI-driven interaction.
- Modular Design: Swappable parts enable task-specific customization and flexible deployment options—bipedal, wheeled, or stationary.
- Extended Operation: Hot-swappable batteries, each lasting 4 hours, support up to 22 hours of continuous daily use.
- Advanced AI: A partnership with Google DeepMind powers Apollo’s sophisticated brain, driving advanced decision-making and interaction.
Strong funding signals long-term stability and scaling potential
In February 2025, Apptronik closed an oversubscribed $403 million Series A round, surpassing its initial $350 million target. Led by B Capital and Capital Factory, the round included Google, Mercedes-Benz, Japan Post Capital, ARK Invest, Helium-3, Magnetar, and RyderVentures, valuing the company at $1.5 billion.
Why Apptronik fits the thesis
Humanoid robots are the future of automation
We believe the humanoid robotics market represents the most transformative opportunity of the next five years, surpassing even digital AI, due to its ability to address the global labor crisis while revolutionizing every major industry.
Unlike digital AI, humanoid robots deliver physical automation, making them indispensable as workforce demographics shift and labor shortage persists.
Apptronik - A clear leader
Apptronik is among a few leaders in humanoid robots in the U.S. with Tesla, and Figure AI.
The company is:
- Well funded: Its latest $403 million Series A round provides substantial capital to invest in R&D and accelerate commercialization.
- Strong differentiation: The Apollo offers unmatched versatility with its modular design, enabling seamless adaptation across warehousing, manufacturing, and future applications.
- Competitive: Due to its decade of robotics expertise, strategic partnerships with Google DeepMind and Mercedes-Benz, Apptronik is well-positioned to capture market share.
A high potential robotics company still trading at early-stage valuations
Figure AI’s valuation has soared to $39.5 billion, while Apptronik, at $1.5 billion post its $403 million Series A, provides an interesting risk-reward profile.
Though early-stage and high-risk, Apptronik presents a rare chance for a 100X return if it captures even a few percent of the multi-trillion-dollar labor replacement market, projected to grow as demand for humanoid robots accelerates.
How Apptronik might exit through public markets or acquisition
Given the explosive growth we expect in humanoid robotics and the scale of capital flowing into the sector, Apptronik is likely to follow one of two paths by 2030:
- IPO: As the market matures, there will be strong demand in the public markets for humanoid robotics companies and Apptronik is among the few well-capitalized players in the space
- Strategic Acquisition: Apptronik might become an acquisition target for tech giants like Google or Amazon, who urgently need automation solutions for logistics and fulfillment.
While no public information is available to hint about those outcomes, the sector’s trajectory and Apptronik’s strategic positioning make one of those two paths plausible and logical.
Apptronik is one of the first proposed allocations for the XMAQUINA treasury. Participants in Genesis Auction 1.5 will gain indirect exposure to this position through their contribution and future $DEUS holdings
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Key risks that could slow down humanoid adoption
While humanoid robotics presents extraordinary potential, there are still material risks
- Execution Risk: Successfully scaling complex hardware and AI systems (manufacturing, reliability, cost control) remains a massive challenge, even for well-funded teams.
- Competition: Tesla, Figure AI bring vast resources and talent and will be competitors in the exact same initial industries (manufacturing, logistics). However, we believe the market is sufficiently large to support multiple winners, with competition preventing monopolistic pricing
- Regulatory & Adoption Hurdles: The most unpredictable risk and also the most likely to be the factor slowing down the industry. Despite acute labor shortages, public resistance to job displacement or safety incidents could delay mass deployment by pressuring regulatory bodies.
The risks are there but the opportunity makes Apptronik a compelling asymmetric bet for the XMAQUINA DAO ecosystem.
Bullish on robotics? So are we.
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