Humanoid robotics will be the most disruptive technology since the internet. As Physical AI integrates into daily life, its future must be open and decentralized. Learn why.
February 23, 2025
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Ecosystem
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16 minutes
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We believe that humanoid robotics will be the most disruptive technology since the Internet. With humanoid robots, we are inviting artificial agents to live in our physical world, we are welcoming Physical AI. This will have profound consequences.
2025 is going to be a breakthrough year. As technological advancements in AI, battery systems, and scalable manufacturing processes converge, humanoid robots are a few years away from becoming mainstream. We will start seeing truly impressive wide-scale experiments this year.
XMAQUINA envisions a future where humanoid robots integrate into our daily lives, enhancing productivity, safety, and quality of life.
This transformative technology is too important to remain controlled by a handful of large corporations in a few countries. Given its inevitable military applications, it will become a strategic priority for sovereign nations to build their own ecosystems and solutions. Although this may lead to some degree of fragmentation, market dynamics are likely to gravitate toward a shared open-source foundation, much like how Android has become the dominant platform in the smartphone industry today.
XMAQUINA aims to accelerate the development of this open-source core and its ecosystem. By strategically investing in selected players, we aim to shape this emerging space and unlock its full potential. In the process, we believe DAO members will benefit greatly from the growth of this ground-breaking technology.
Given how popular culture has portrayed them, itʼs reasonable to ask why we persist in developing robots that resemble humans so closely. In movies like Terminator or I,Robot, the development of humanoid robots invariably leads to catastrophe. Ex Machina offers a more nuanced but equally cautionary tale. This modern exploration of artificial intelligence follows an android who manipulates the protagonist, ultimately breaking free and killing its creator.
Given these dire science fiction scenarios, one might wonder: why do we continue pursuing robots that mirror human form?
Brett Adcock, CEO of Figure, offers a very clear answer: our world has been built by humans, for humans, with every object optimized for the human form.
Consider the domestic environment: a wheeled robot may struggle with something as simple as climbing stairs. A quadrupedal robot could climb stairs , but neither is capable of operating human transportation modes such as bicycles or cars. These tools and machines fundamentally require a human form to function.
Our world is designed for beings with one head, two legs, and two hands. More specifically, the world is designed for the average adult human. Most objects are built for adults with average heights and average builds. Even among humans, the world is less accommodating to children, people with disabilities, or those outside average proportions. So, in order to work across both everyday and workplace environments, humanoid robots of average height and build will provide maximum utility.
Humans continue developing humanoid robots because they offer unparalleled versatility and utility, adapting to countless environments and tasks. They are truly the ultimate general purpose tool.
The past five years have seen remarkable progress in the area of artificial intelligence, agents, and humanoid robotics. While the advancements in AI have been widely publicized, the strides in the physical capabilities of humanoid robots are equally noteworthy: Tesla Optimus can now walk, climb hills, slide, and recover from falls; Toyotaʼs CUE6 earned a Guinness World Record for the "Longest basketball shot by a humanoid robot"; Figure F02 is undergoing tests in BMW manufacturing sites; and Boston Dynamicsʼ Atlas demonstrates impressive feats like dancing and performing backflips.
The 5 market leaders, right now, are Tesla, Figure, Agility Robotics, Boston Dynamics and Unitree. There are a number of upcoming start-ups innovating fast in the space, such as 1X Technologies, Agibot, Engineered Arts and countless others. Every one would deserve their own papers. Letʼs explore some key players: Figure, Tesla, Unitree, and 1X.
Tesla: Elon Musk has publicly stated that, in a few years, revenue from Optimus could surpass that of electric car sales. Itʼs not surprising that Tesla is heavily invested in this field, given its existing strengths such as:
Figure, is a relatively new startup led by Brett Adcock, which has made astonishing progress in a short time. Their robot stands out not only for its impressive technical performance but also for its elegant design. The level of care put into the robotʼs appearance makes it look like something Apple might have developed.
Unitree: The interest in humanoid robotics is not limited to the United States. Unitree, a Chinese company, has also made significant strides, especially with its quadruped robots. Unitree could be a game changer if they succeed in drastically reducing production costs, making robots more affordable and accessible.
1X Technologies: 1X Technologies is part-american, part Norwegian. It has developed a robot that resembles Teslaʼs Optimus but with much smoother movements. This robot is designed specifically for domestic use.
For companies like Figure and Tesla, the primary goal is to replace human workers, particularly in industrial environments where labor is essential but conditions can be hazardous. These robots are being designed to be extremely robust, with the long-term goal of operating in fully automated environments. At the initial stage, their purpose isnʼt necessarily to coexist with humans in everyday life.
On the other hand, 1X differentiates itself with the ambition of creating a domestic robot. Every aspect of its design prioritizes seamless interaction with humans. For example, during demonstrations, the robot collaborates with a young woman, and certain parts of its body, where one might expect mechanical "muscles," have been thoughtfully designed to be soft, preventing injuries during repeated interactions. Every detail is optimized to ensure safe coexistence with humans.
Another impressive aspect of 1Xʼs work is their demonstration of tasks like serving coffee, as well as their ability to handle delicate operations. This level of precision and interaction sets a new standard for humanoid robotics.
Humanoid robotics will be transformative, both economically and socially. Brett Adcock and Elon Musk highlight the enormous potential for humanoid robots to reshape the global economy, potentially creating a market that could rival or surpass todayʼs largest industries, such as energy and healthcare.
With aging populations across developed countries and increasing pressure on labor markets due to a shrinking workforce, humanoid robots will become essential in addressing labor shortages and providing support for senior care.
According to a report by Goldman Sachs, the global market for humanoid robots is projected to reach $38 billion by 2035, driven by demand across industrial, commercial, and domestic sectors. Elon Musk has expressed that the Optimus robot could significantly impact the company's valuation, potentially making Tesla a $25 trillion company (Yahoo Finance.) In one presentation, he claimed that “this will be the biggest product everˮ drawing parallels to the iPhone, which redefined personal technology and became one of the most successful products in history.
We believe that the $38 billion estimate by Goldman Sachs is very conservative. In 2024, the iPhone alone generated about $200 billion in revenue for Apple, accounting for nearly half of the companyʼs total revenue. It took many years to get there but by comparison, humanoid robots have the potential to transform multiple sectors simultaneously, from industrial automation and healthcare to domestic assistance, each of which representing multi-billion dollar markets on its own.
Unlike the iPhone, which disrupted the consumer electronics market, humanoid robots could disrupt almost every market, including the labor market itself. As populations age and labor shortages become a growing issue, robots designed to support industrial operations and daily life could see exponential demand. Furthermore, advancements in AI, battery technology, and scalable manufacturing are accelerating the timeline for large-scale adoption, which could lead to a market size far beyond initial projections, sooner.
We are not the only ones thinking that the market will be much bigger than Goldman Sachs’ prediction. For instance, ARK Invest forecasts a $24 trillion opportunity, driven by advancements in humanoid robots and their integration into various industries. Similarly, Macquarie Research estimates the global market size for humanoid robots could reach $209 billion by 2035, with manufacturing volumes hitting 9.4 million units, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 69% between 2025 and 2035.
Industrial Automation
Companies like Tesla and Figure are initially focusing on industrial environments where robots can replace human labor in repetitive, dangerous, or physically demanding tasks. In sectors such as manufacturing, logistics, and warehousing, humanoid robots could increase productivity dramatically while reducing costs.
Healthcare and Elderly Care
As the global population ages, there will be an increasing need for caregiving robots that can assist with routine tasks, mobility, and companionship for the elderly. Companies like 1X are well-positioned to address this market with their emphasis on safe, human-friendly design.
Hospitality and Retail
The hospitality industry, including hotels, restaurants, and entertainment, is another promising area for humanoid robots. These robots could handle customer service, cleaning, and food preparation tasks, enhancing efficiency and customer experience. In this sector, androids, humanoid robots with a human face, could play a bigger role.
Domestic Assistance
Humanoid robots designed for household tasks could become as common as household appliances. Tasks like cleaning, cooking, childcare, and pet care could be outsourced to robots designed for domestic environments.
While the outlook for humanoid robots is promising, several significant hurdles remain:
We believe the humanoid robotics market will evolve in a way similar to the smartphone market, with two dominant models emerging:
Due to economies of scale and the complexity of humanoid robotics, we anticipate a similar dual-model dynamic in this industry, with a few full-stack players and a broad open ecosystem driving innovation and widespread adoption.
We expect Tesla to adopt a full-stack approach by controlling the entire value chain—from hardware and AI software to post-deployment services. Teslaʼs expertise in large-scale manufacturing, advanced battery technology, and autonomous systems positions it to create tightly integrated products with superior performance and reliability. This approach would enable Tesla to dominate high-margin industrial and commercial markets, where customers are willing to pay a premium for comprehensive, well-integrated solutions.
Similar to Appleʼs position in the smartphone market, Tesla may capture a smaller share of total units sold but generate outsized profits by offering value-added services across the entire "problem space." These services could include software updates, predictive maintenance, and enhanced AI capabilities offered through subscription models. The ability to monetize both hardware and ongoing services would provide full-stack players with a significant competitive advantage in terms of profitability.
Tesla’s approach to humanoid robots may mirror their strategy for electric vehicles. In the EV space, Tesla leverages real-world data from its vast fleet to refine its autonomous driving systems, with the ultimate goal of achieving full self-driving capability. This process relies on human-driven data collection, which is then used to train models that eventually aim to eliminate the need for human input entirely.
Tesla’s key insight lies in recognizing the immense value of gathering large volumes of high-quality, application-specific data. We believe this data-driven methodology is equally crucial for advancing humanoid robots. Our thesis is that access to vast, real-world datasets will be a critical differentiator in developing highly capable and autonomous humanoid systems.
In contrast, we anticipate that the broader industry will coalesce around a shared, open-source ecosystem built on a Humanoid Robot Core (HRC). This core would include a standardized operating system and a suite of essential components, such as a foundational world model. By providing a common framework, the HRC would enable a diverse range of manufacturers to design and deploy robots with varying features, capabilities, and price points, catering to a wide array of market demands.
An open ecosystem would enable faster innovation by encouraging collaboration across a large community of developers and hardware manufacturers. Over time, this model would create a vibrant and diverse market, with specialized robots optimized for specific sectors such as healthcare, logistics, personal assistance, hospitality, security, and defense.
By allowing smaller manufacturers to focus on hardware without needing to develop a proprietary operating system, the open model would lower the barrier to entry and drive mass adoption. Similar to how Android allowed a broad range of handset makers to succeed, this approach would result in a wide variety of humanoid robots tailored for niche applications, ensuring broad use across industries and geographies.
Some industries, such as security and defense, are unlikely to accept dependence on a single full-stack provider like Tesla. Instead, they will demand dedicated, open-source, auditable systems developed by national providers under their control to ensure that critical functions remain sovereign and secure.
NVIDIA is working on open systems, and are likely to have a strategy to develop this HRC. It has introduced the concept of a "world foundation model" (WFM) with their Cosmos platform, for instance. These models are designed to understand the dynamics of the real world, including physics and spatial properties, enabling robots and autonomous vehicles to perceive, understand, and perform complex actions in physical environments.
The structure of this open ecosystem could follow a model similar to the hourglass-shaped protocol stack that forms the backbone of the TCP/IP architecture. This model is referred to as hourglass-shaped because it highlights the essential role of the IP layer as the narrow waist through which all communication flows.
At the top, a broad range of application-layer protocols (such as HTTP, FTP, and SMTP) operate, while at the bottom, various network and link-layer protocols (such as Ethernet, Wi-Fi, and LTE) handle connectivity. The IP layer in the middle acts as a universal, minimal interface, ensuring seamless interoperability across diverse technologies and applications.
This hourglass structure has been key to the internetʼs scalability and success, enabling innovation and competition. It allowed a broad ecosystem of companies to flourish at the lower layers—such as Cisco, Juniper Networks, and other network hardware providers—while an even larger ecosystem developed at the upper layers, including major infrastructure and application providers like Google, Facebook, and Amazon, alongside millions of smaller developers and startups.
Similarly, we believe that the open humanoid robot ecosystem will be structured around a narrow waist: a humanoid robot core, or HRC, composed of an operating system designed to work with a standardized “human bodyˮ form factor as the common denominator.
Below the HRC, we will likely find a few standardized “shared platformsˮ, a similar concept to what we can see in the automotive industry with the Volkswagen's MQB platform, the Toyota's TNGA platform or the Hyundai-Kia's N3 platform.
The MQB platform is used in models across multiple brands such as VW, Audi, Skoda, and SEAT. Below those shared platforms are the individual humanoid robot models, which differ significantly—from very basic to highly advanced androids—to serve various use cases.
Above the HRC, we would have capabilities and plug-ins, and above this middleware, we would find the application layer targeting a wide range of use cases. Some robots may be conversational, while others may remain silent, depending on their intended function.
XMAQUINAʼs mission is to accelerate the development of open robotics ecosystems and support the creation of a strong foundation for humanoid robot innovation.
As a DAO, we can:
Like with Android, there will be many winners in an open ecosystem. XMAQUINA aims to identify and support those potential winners.
By strategically investing in and supporting these key areas, XMAQUINA can help shape the future of humanoid robotics and ensure the success of an open ecosystem that benefits everyone.
There is no doubt in our mind that humanoid robotics is a transformative technology that will
happen. The real question is when will this become mainstream, i.e. when will this cross the chasm? Letʼs look at the two most recent personal hardware revolutions.
We can abstract this into four different phases:
For humanoid robotics, we are currently in the research phase, where most advancements are taking place in labs and through pilot deployments. Some early commercial use cases have emerged, such as humanoid robots being deployed in BMW's production lines and Agility Robotics' units operating in warehouses. However, the market remains nascent and highly fragmented, with no clear dominant players or platforms.
We foresee the industry entering the explosion phase in 2025, driven by a wave of investments from venture capital firms, established tech giants, and government-backed initiatives. Substantial commitments from U.S. and Chinese companies are expected to accelerate progress, accompanied by a steady stream of breakthroughs and announcements. Similar to the AI boom in 2023 and 2024, where rapid advancements stunned the world, humanoid robotics could see a comparable pace of development, reshaping public perception and market expectations. The explosion phase usually generates massive returns for investors. For instance, even though Nokia and Blackberry didnʼt win the battle, their market cap grew massively during the explosion phase.
For XMAQUINA, the objective is to strategically invest in the core technologies that will be used throughout the phase, and develop the emerging dominant open ecosystem, both at the core infrastructure level and in the application layer. We believe that the core will be built on top of Linux, analogous to how Android leveraged the Linux kernel to become a dominant mobile operating system.
Based on our vision, we believe that a few areas are strategically sound for investment:
Innovative hardware manufacturers: Companies with a technological edge in humanoid robotics hardware. Examples include 1X, known for its advanced motion control systems, and Clone, which is developing human-like robots with muscle-based designs that could unlock entirely new use cases. Drawing a parallel with the mobile phone market, companies like Samsung and Sharp played pivotal roles by being key hardware suppliers during both the feature phone era and the smartphone revolution. Similarly, investing in foundational hardware players today could yield significant returns as the humanoid robotics market matures.
Decentralized training and deployment networks (DePIN): Capturing data is a crucial step in building a foundational world model. Today, robotics and AI companies rely on a mix of real-world data collection and simulation. We believe that large-scale decentralized networks can revolutionize this process by offering a more scalable and cost-effective way to gather real-world data. DePINs, such as Hivemapper, outperform traditional players like Google in real-time mapping by providing more up-to-date and accurate data. We see a similar opportunity for humanoid robots, where decentralized networks will play a vital role in scaling adoption and driving continuous improvement through real-world data collection and feedback loops. With PEAQ leading the charge in DePIN technology, XMAQUINA is strategically positioned to collaborate with or invest in comparable initiatives that will shape the future of this critical infrastructure.
AI models and solutions: Companies and projects working on advanced AI technologies that will power the intelligence of humanoid robots present a compelling investment opportunity. These include real-time decision-making systems, sophisticated perception models, and autonomous behavior frameworks. A key advantage of these AI solutions is their platform-agnostic nature—they retain their value and applicability regardless of which “core” humanoid robot technology ultimately prevails, making them both resilient and high-impact investments.
XMAQUINA could play a pivotal role in this ecosystem by funding a subnet on platforms like Bittensor. Such a subnet would incentivize decentralized AI model training and deployment, fostering the development of scalable, high-performance AI solutions. This approach would not only support the creation of cutting-edge intelligence for humanoid robots but also ensure that XMAQUINA is at the forefront of decentralized AI innovation.
Additionally, we believe it is critical to explore and support the development of an open-source core for humanoid robotics. Much like Android built on Linux to dominate the smartphone era, a widely adopted open-source robotics core could become the foundation of the future humanoid ecosystem. This is why the community should actively engage in projects such as the Robot Operating System (ROS), which offers a modular framework for robot development and could evolve into the standard for humanoid robotics.
XMAQUINAʼs investments should be structured to grow alongside the humanoid robotics market. This is a long-term, 10-year strategy focused on nurturing foundational technologies and key ecosystem players. Humanoid robotics is at a nascent stage today, and strategic investments in this space could deliver transformative results within the next 10 years.
A final note to our readers: during the explosive growth phase of any emerging industry, significant upside exists for investors—even when the selected investments don’t turn out to be the long-term winners. Consider Nokia and Research In Motion (RIM), once dominant players in the mobile phone industry. While they are now seen as underdogs compared to Apple and Samsung, it’s important to recall that in 1998, Nokia held a 27% global market share and had become the world’s leading mobile phone manufacturer. Between 1994 and 1998, its stock price surged by 2,300%, driving its market capitalization to an impressive $242.2 billion.
We are now entering a similar explosive phase in humanoid robotics, where exponential value creation is on the horizon. XMAQUINA is uniquely positioned to play a critical role in this evolution. Leveraging its deep connections in the DePIN space, XMAQUINA can capture valuable data, invest in intellectual property, and build essential infrastructure to navigate through the inevitable cycles of boom and bust. There has never been a more exciting time to be part of the future of robotics.
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